The Black Sea Blueprint for Taiwan. Ukraine’s Naval Lessons in Asymmetric Warfare.

Ukraine’s successful asymmetric naval campaign in the Black Sea has provided numerous lessons about how unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) can effectively challenge conventional naval forces. This report sets out to apply these lessons to the context of the Indo Pacific, specifically, how USVs would shift the balance in a scenario of Chinese Amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

The report uses existing invasion scenarios to assess opportunities and limitations of using USVs by Taiwan to successfully fend off a significantly stronger People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

Key themes and insights include:
– Overview of successes and failures of Ukraine’s naval attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, considerations for attrition and cost asymmetry.

– Taiwan’s environmental and geographic factors affecting USV deployment; comparison of Taiwan’s USVs the Kuai Chi and the Endeavor Manta with Ukraine’s USVs MAGURA and Sea Baby.

– Assessment of Taiwan’s industrial capacity, procurement challenges, storage, launch and logistical constraints with respect to USVs.

– Evaluation of PLAN’s capabilities as well as Taiwan’s operational concept of USV use, available opportunities and remaining challenges to slow down and repel the invasion.